Preliminary Numbers

Because I’m a glutton for punishment, I’ve been digging into the numbers from the election.

It’s hard for me to make any firm conclusions since I don’t know how many people voted in the Pierre city election. The tallies I have are County numbers which include people who could not vote for me. The Secretary of State’s voter turn out reports shows 3,721 people voted in this election but not all 3,721 were eligible to vote for me.

The numbers are further complicated by the fact that people could cast two votes. In total there were 6,092 votes cast. This is not 6,092 people. And you can’t simply divide 6,092 in half because there are people who bullet voted, or voted for only one candidate.

I’ve done some back of envelope math using votes in the presidential primaries and voting centers (though people in the county can also vote in the in-town voting centers) to get a rough estimate of how many people voted in the city election. A good working number is 3,500. It may be lower but I don’t think it’s much higher.

I did have 1155 people vote for me but that is not a clear number of supporters. If people could only vote for one, would they have voted for me? It’s hard to tell how many people would pick me as their first choice.

So looking at the numbers, with all the caveats the explanation above suggests, this is what I see.

There are about 7,000 registered voters in Pierre of about 10,500 residents over the age of 18. Of those 7,000 about 42% are age 50-69.

Screenshot from Census Viewer

About half of the registered voters in Pierre voted in this election.

Because Steve and Blake were close in numbers, and Jamie and I were close in numbers, I am going to assume there was a lot of paired voting: Steve/Blake and Jamie/me. There might have been a few people who voted in some other combination and then there are the people who bullet voted

This means that had Jamie not run, I don’t think my numbers would have gone up much. And my gut tells me that Jamie, hometown resident, would have won over me had Steve or Blake not run.

I have an email into Kevin Hipple to find out how to get the demographic information of voters in this election, assuming it’s possible at all. I’m curious how many of the 18-39 year old voted.

I suspect that one of the reasons I did so poorly was that a goodly percentage of voters who actually voted were in that 50-69 demographic. During the chicken ordinance hearing at city commission, the age demographics of who supported it (younger) and who opposed it (older) were clearly demarcated.

The only scenario where I can see that I might (stress might) have gotten elected is if there were a lot of new voters from that younger demographic, especially if it turns out they were not already well represented.